- The Breakfast Ball Buffet
- Posts
- Breakfast Ball's Masters Preview
Breakfast Ball's Masters Preview
All you need to know about this year's Masters...
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/420ddee2-f285-4e24-a201-74a5b5389a05/Screenshot_2024-03-29_at_3.29.51_AM.png_copy.jpeg?t=1712705169)
The Breakfast Ball Buffet: April 10th
Good morning! It’s Masters Wednesday, which means this time tomorrow we’ll have live coverage streaming on our second monitors and we’ll be going cameras-off on our zoom meetings!
Here’s a look at today’s menu:
Does Tiger have any magic left in him?
Pairings & tee times released
Masters trends and betting preview
Tiger 🐅
There is only one guy who warrants his own feed and his name is Eldrick Tont Woods, aka Tiger.
TW arrived at Augusta National on Sunday and has played practice rounds each day since. Will Zalatoris got the nod to play with Big Cat on Monday, before Tiger teed it off with his go-to guys Justin Thomas and Freddy Couples on Tuesday.
Now it feels like every year (or tournament for that matter) we work ourselves up with the practice round hype, but it’s more fun that way. So here you go:
🚨Reports are emerging from Tiger’s Monday practice round. Michael Collins reports that Tiger was “moving well” and hit it to 3 feet at the 11th and “that old Tiger Woods hitting good shots around Augusta, yeah that guys here right now.” Will Zalatoris says “he played great… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— TWLEGION (@TWlegion)
7:24 PM • Apr 8, 2024
On Tuesday, we saw him whip out the ball speed on the range. 👀
174 mph ball speed with the driver. Tiger is feeling it. #themasters
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS)
1:17 PM • Apr 9, 2024
A made-cut this week for Tiger will give him the record for most consecutive cuts made at Augusta (24), passing his pal Freddie, who had this to say:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/45e4067f-98a2-452a-b65a-34300fcd3b73/GKvKn7kW0AEBguI.jpg?t=1712702316)
But the TW fan club didn’t go Nuclear (Shout out to our guy @TWLegion) until his post round media session where he gave us this ⤵️
“Since Riviera, I wasn’t ready to play. My body wasn’t ready. My game wasn’t ready. Now we have major championships every month from here to July. Now, the once a month kicks in.”
“If everything comes together, I think I can get one more [Green Jacket].”
Can’t wait to see how he plays on Thursday 🍿
Tee times & pairings released
The Masters committee always give us banger groupings, but this year they went off. Here are some of the notables and their 1st round tee times (EST):
10:18 am → Matsuyama - Zalatoris - Thomas
10:30 am → Rahm - Fitzpatrick - Dunlap
10:42 am → McIlroy - Scheffler - Schauffele
10:54 am → Clark - Smith - Hovland
1:24 pm → Woods - Homa - Day
1:36 pm → Koepka - Harman - Kim
1:48 pm → Spieth - Åberg - Theegala
While these are all star-studded groups, the ones that stick out are the Rory-Scottie-X and the Jordan-Ludvig-Sahith groupings.
That first is going to provide the most quality in terms of golf (I think the winner will be one of those 3) and Jordan, Ludvig and Sahith will provide us with an adventurous watch: 2 guys who are always in the forest and then Ludvig, who splits every fairway.
Masters trends and betting preview
When it comes to betting at the Masters, having historical knowledge is helpful. Whether you plan on taking outright winners, 72 hole matchups, certain guys to make the cut, or all of the above, you should pay attention to certain trends.
Here are 5 key trends that will help you make your picks this week:
ONE: No one wins in their first Masters start. In the last 87 years, only one guy has done it, and it was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Although they’ve had some decent showings in the last decade (Spieth in 2014, Im in 2020, and Zalatoris in 2021), I would strongly advise against betting on a first timer to win this week.
The notable guys who fall into this category are Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg and Akshay Bhatia.
TWO: 10 of the last 11 Masters winners have been at 1.7 strokes gained tee-to-green or better starting January 1st of their winning year. Here’s who qualifies this year:
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Justin Thomas, and Joaquinn Niemann
THREE: There’s no course in the world where past performance serves as a better indicator of future success. 7 of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-5 finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket, with all 10 having previously collected a top-25 result.
Bryson Dechambeau and Max Homa are two that don’t pass this test.
FOUR: Every Masters champ since 2014 had a top-15 finish on either the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in the calendar year leading up to the Masters. On top of that, 8 of the last 10 Masters champs had a top-3 finish in the same span.
Notables such as Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, and Tom Kim don’t qualify for this trend.
FIVE: Augusta National is a ball striker’s paradise. The golf course specifically caters to long ball hitters who have elite iron games. The last 10 Masters champs were averaging at least +0.40 strokes gained approach in the three months leading up to the tournament. Here are the notable names who haven’t reached this mark in 2024:
Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, Spieth, Fleetwood, Cantlay, Rahm, DJ, and Bryson.
Now, with all that being said, who does that leave us with? Scottie, Rory, Xander, Cam Young and… Tiger. We didn’t even take TW into account for all the trends; we like him because it’s Tiger Woods at Augusta National. Our answer is pretty basic, but there’s a reason for it.
Here are our many-more-than-usual bets we like this week at the Masters ↓
Outrights:
Rahm (+1000) - A little extra motivation playing against his old PGA tour competitors.
Schauffele (+1400) - His game is hot and he plays well at Augusta - can he get it done down the stretch?
Young (+4500) - One of our fav sleepers
Harmon (+7500) - Another sleeper. Augusta is built for the lefty cuts
Top-finishers:
Scheffler top-10 (-200) - How can you not take him?
Matsuyama top-10 (+150) - One of the hottest players coming in, loves Augusta
Lowry top-20 (+125) - Has finished in the top 25 here three years in a row
Clark top-20 (+160) - First timers might not win, but we’ve seen them finish top 5 year after year
Henley top-20 (+160) - Another hot name in early 2024, top 5 at the Masters last year
72-hole matchups:
Young over Burns (-125) - Burns might have to WD if his wife goes into labor. Kinda stinks in majors anyways
Lowry over Theegala (-125) - Consistent at Augusta, bad weather on Thursday might play into his advantage
Bhatia over T. Kim (-150) - Akshay is coming off a win and is playing with house money this week
Quick bites 🥓 :